Bowl Championship Series Standings

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Dec 2: All data is updated.

Dec 2: Coaches, Poll, Colley, and Sagarin are out. It looks almost certain that it will be OSU vs LSU. The exstimate below includes the afore mentioned polls and I gave OU a solid #3 and VT a solid #4 in Harris. It looks like neither will be able to crack the top two.

					Computer	Coach's			HI		BCS
Rank	Team		W	L	Pts	Rank	Points	BCS	Rank	Points	Points	Points
1	Ohio State	11	1	0.90	1	1469	0.979	1	2779	0.975	0.9515
2	LSU		11	2	0.95	2	1418	0.945	2	2721	0.955	0.9500
3	Virginia Tech	11	2	0.97	5	1242	0.828	4	2438	0.855	0.8845
4	Oklahoma	11	2	0.78	3	1331	0.887	3	2600	0.912	0.8599
5	Georgia		10	2	0.80	4	1277	0.851	5	2215	0.777	0.8095
6	Missouri	11	2	0.86	7	1104	0.736	8	2132	0.748	0.7814
7	Southern Cal	10	2	0.70	6	1227	0.818	7	2164	0.759	0.7591
8	Kansas		11	1	0.74	8	1099	0.733	6	2170	0.761	0.7447
9	West Virginia	10	2	0.68	9	1010	0.673	9	2059	0.722	0.6919
10	Arizona St	10	2	0.71	11	900	0.600	12	1587	0.557	0.6223
11	Hawai`i		12	0	0.54	10	994	0.663	10	1829	0.642	0.6148
12	Florida		9	3	0.63	12	890	0.593	11	1757	0.616	0.6133

Dec 2: I have Guestimated that VT will hold a 0.02 computer advantage over LSU. The Rankings below reflect keeping the margin between VT and LSU the same as last week in the human polls and moving them up to #2 and #3. You see that VT will be #2 in the BCS.

					Computer	Coach's			HI		BCS
Rank	Team		W	L	Pts	Rank	Points	BCS	Rank	Points	Points	Points
1	Ohio State	11	1	0.93	1	1467	0.978	1	2779	0.975	0.9610
2	Virginia Tech	11	2	0.97	2	1432	0.955	3	2670	0.937	0.9538
3	LSU		11	2	0.95	3	1405	0.937	2	2721	0.955	0.9471
4	Georgia		10	2	0.79	4	1232	0.821	4	2368	0.831	0.8141
5	Missouri	11	2	0.86	9	1073	0.715	8	2132	0.748	0.7745
6	Kansas		11	1	0.73	5	1161	0.774	5	2215	0.777	0.7604
7	Oklahoma	11	2	0.73	5	1161	0.774	6	2170	0.761	0.7551
8	Southern Cal	10	2	0.70	7	1134	0.756	7	2164	0.759	0.7384
9	West Virginia	10	2	0.72	8	1126	0.751	9	2059	0.722	0.7310
10	Florida		9	3	0.65	11	898	0.599	11	1757	0.616	0.6217

It will be interesting to see if the voters will move LSU up over VT due to the earlier season win by LSU over VT. The numbers below, reflect 7 coaches fliping votes and 15 Harris pollsters flipping their votes from VT to LSU. So LSU would need just one more vote to go their way to pass VT in the BCS.

					Computer	Coach's			HI		BCS
Rank	Team		W	L	Pts	Rank	Points	BCS	Rank	Points	Points	Points
1	Ohio State	11	1	0.93	1	1467	0.978	1	2779	0.975	0.9610
2	Virginia Tech	11	2	0.97	2	1425	0.950	3	2655	0.932	0.9505
3	LSU		11	2	0.95	3	1412	0.941	2	2736	0.960	0.9504

Now what if I'm wrong on the computer projection (very likely) and VT only holds a 0.01 advantage on LSU. Then LSU will only about 4 coaches and 7 Harris pollster to switch. If VT and LSU are tied in the computers and the margin in tghe polls is the same as last week, then their will be a virtual tie in the BCS - .95050 for VT to .95047 for LSU!

Of course who know if it is going to come down to VT and LSU...for all we know the voters may put OU on top of both.

Dec 2: Amazing. I got a few emails critizing me for giving Pitt a 15% chance to win. It's not that I knew Pitt had a better chance than everyone else was giving them...just that I think most teams have at least a 10% chance to win on any given Saturday. So the talking heads are saying LSU will be in...I think so too as the voters will put LSU in as they beat VT by 40. However I think VT will have a better computer component than LSU. Here's a quick guess at the computers. IF LSU trails VT by 0.02 in the computers, they will need about 15 more votes in the Coaches' Poll and about 30 more in the Harris Poll to over take VT.

	Team		ST	RB	WC	KM	JS	PW	Ave	Pts
1	Virginia Tech	8	3	2	1	1	1	1.75	0.97
2	LSU		5	2	1	2	2	3	2.25	0.95
3	Ohio State	1	1	3	4	3	5	2.75	0.93
4	Missouri	4	5	5	5	4	4	4.50	0.86
5	Georgia		7	11	4	3	7	7	6.25	0.79
6	Kansas		2	9	11	12	5	6	7.75	0.74
7	Oklahoma	9	6	8	9	8	2	7.75	0.73
8	West Virginia	10	7	7	11	6	8	8.00	0.73
9	Arizona St	3	8	9	6	12	10	8.25	0.72
10	Southern Cal	6	4	12	10	9	9	8.50	0.71

Nov 27: Time for my annual Playoff arguement. I've long been proposing going to a 6 team playoff with the top two teams getting a bye. Of course, the extra money would have to be shared. This keeps the bowls in tact, places importance on the regular season, and still keeps a little controversy. I think an 8 team playoff is too big a leap and 4 teams is not enough. Here's how it would work.

Nov 26: All data is updated.

Nov 25: LSU's loss opens the door for OSU and maybe even UGA?? OSU will need OU to beat Mizzou or Pitt to beat WVU to get to the NC game. If both of those happen then LSU could be back with win over UT, with an LSU loss VT would have a claim if they win the ACC, and UGA or USC possibly if LSU and VT lose. I think Kansas is done and OU's computer component will keep them out.

NOV 18: New Day...New BCS! ALL Data is updated. Missouri has made a big move in the human polls and is set to jump WVU, if they beat Kansas. WVU may need OU to beat the Kansas/Miss winner or LSU to lose to UGA.

Nov 16: Another #2 goes down. What does this do to the BCS? It doesn't affect Kansas all that much because they were going to jump Oregon anyway if they win out. This really opens the door for the Big12 champ. If Missouri wins out I think they will hold off the other 1 loss teams. If Ou wins out it could get interesting but I think the voters will put OU in the #2 spot. WVU has a much better chance now as all they need is a loss by LSU or a loss 2nd loss by the eventual Big12 Champ. Missouri could lose to KanSt and then knock off Kansas and OU. OU could lose to OSU and then beat the Kan/Miss winner. However WV has tough games at Cin and vs Uconn which would put OSU back in the picture.

Nov 13: Below are my projected computer rankings if the top 3 teams win out. It looks like Kansas will have a 0.04 computer margin over Oregon if they beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 cahmpionship game.

	Team		KM	JS	RB	ST	PW	WC	Ave
1	LSU		1	2	1	3	2	1	0.98
2	Kansas		2	1	3	1	1	3	0.97
3	Oregon		3	3	4	2	3	2	0.93
4	Arizona St	4	6	6	4	4	4	0.86
5	West Virginia	5	4	2	6	5	6	0.84
6	Ohio State	6	5	5	5	6	5	0.83

Keeping LSU's and Oregon's votes in the polls the same as they are today and substituting in the above computer projection I've calculated the points in the polls that Kansas would have to gain to over take Oregon. Kansas can have about 30 less points in the coaches' poll and 55 less points in the Harris poll and still over take Oregon. Should the computer advantage for Kansas be .03 instead of .04 Kansas would need to be within 21 and 42 points respectfully. I think if Kansas wins out they will jump Oregon.

			Computer	Coach's			HI			BCS
Rank	Team	W	L	Pts	Rank	Points	BCS	Rank	Points	Points	Points
1	LSU	9	1	0.98	1	1457	0.971	1	2742	0.979	0.9769
2	Oregon	8	1	0.93	2	1407	0.938	2	2651	0.947	0.9383
3	Kansas	10	0	0.97	3	1378	0.919	3	2596	0.927	0.9386

Now what if Missouri wins out. I think Oregon and Missouri computer ranking will be very similar - about .95 +/- .01. If that is the case I don't see the voters jumping Missouri over Oregon. Best case for Oregon is if Oklahoma wins out as I see their computer ranking being lower than Oregon's if they win out. I'll run a more detailed computer projection on Missouri and OU if Kansas loses.

Nov 11: All data is updated. If LSU and Oregon win out the only team I see jumping either of these teams is Kansas. If all three teams win-out it will be interesting to see if the voters mandate Kansas to be in NC game. Look for computer projections soon.

Nov 5: ALL Data is updated. Below are my projected computer ranking assuming the higher ranked team wins all remaining games. Oregon probably will jump ahead of LSU by the end of the regular season but LSU will retake Oregon in most polls after the SEC CG. Should Kansas not win out, Oregon will trail LSU by .02 instead of .03. So lets say LSU has a 0.02 computer advantage over Oregon. Oregon will need about 1% more votes then LSU - about 15 more points in the Coaches' and about 30 more points in the Harris poll than LSU to over take the #2 spot. Kansas - if they go undefeated will have about the same margin to make-up over LSU. It will interesting to see if the voters will move an undefeated Kansas above LSU. I think that is real possiblility to get an undisputed NC.

	Team	KM	JS	RB	ST	PW	WC	Ave
1	Ohio St	2	1	1	1	1	2	0.99
2	LSU	1	3	2	4	4	1	0.94
3	Kansas	3	2	6	2	2	5	0.92
4	Oregon	5	4	3	3	3	3	0.91

Nov 4: Polls and computer top 25 are updated. The disussion this week will be over who belongs in the #2 position. I think LSU's will still maitain a small margin over Oregon in the polls. Even if they don't they still should have a better computer component than Oregon. I'll run an analysis of the projected computer strength's of these two teams to see if LSU will keep its computer advantage.

Oct 7: All data is updated. Ohio State has the #2 spot but Cal is #2 in the polls. I think it will be this way when the official BCS rankings come out. I think OSU will keep its lead in computer polls but it will get smaller as the season goes on. This could be a very interesting race if both teams goes undefeated.

Sep 30: All Data is updated including the Harris poll. The potential SEC, PAC-10, and Big Ten Champs have the inside position. S.Fla and BC could get in if they go undefeated and two of the afore mentioned three lose. If UK continues to win they could possibly jump over a few teams. See more analysis in my Commentary section.

Sep 22: The Ratings are updated except for Massey's Ranking which I have estimated. I have been reading up on his method and my attempt was very close to his rankings last week. Let's see how I do this week. Anyway, OU moved up above UF in the AP poll and think that will be mirrored in the Harris poll when it comes out. OU though looks be have the weakest computer ranking of the BCS contenders. So they could be on the outside if LSU and USC continue to win. Ohio state continues to move up and their projected SOS and computer ranking is getting stronger each week.

Sep 16: The Ratings are updated and the computer polls are starting to get "connected" and better relect the ratings of the teams. The SEC had a very good week, the projected SOS of all SEC teams went up by six spots motly due to UK's stunning upset win over Louisville. Despite Minn's embarrassing loss to FAU, the Big Ten won all other non conference games and its projetced SOS went up 8 spots. The Pac-10 droppped over 8 spot on average in the projected SOS as UCLA lost to Utah,and Arizona lost to New Mexico.

Sep 9 For the ratings this week I've added the AP poll in place of the Harris Interactive poll. I did this for two reasons. 1) I think it gives us a media view point similar to the HI. 2)The computer polls are really screwy early in the season and the added weight of two polls helps minimize the volatility in the computers and gives us a better idea of what the rankings will look like in week 5.

Recapping the week, the Big East and the Big10 (despite Michigan) moved up in the Projected SOS and therefore in the computers. Oklahoma looked really good on the field but I'm still seeing weakness in the computers for OU. Could an undefeated OU finish 3rd to an undefeated USC and LSU. Sound Familiar?

Sep 7: Weekend Preview

Oregon State's upset loss to Cincinnati hurts USC's and CAL SOS and gives a needed boost to the Big East.

#3 LSU versus #10 VT is the marquis match up of the weekend. Aside from the direct impact on the standings this game has little effect outside the SOS of the SEC and ACC.

#9 OU versus #23 Miami should be very interesting from a football standpoint. A Miami upset could hurt Texas’s chances the most. SEC fans should root for Miami. Any game that helps the ACC also help the SEC as there are several games between the two conferences. GT UGA, VT LSU, FSU UF, FSU Bama, Clem SC, NC SC, VU WF.

#34 ranked Arizona State has a chance to redeem the Pac10 as it takes on #38 ranked Colorado of the Big12. This game is really a toss up and these evenly matched intra-conference games are the ones that can decide the computer rankings. A Colorado win helps the ACC (and indirectly the SEC) as FSU plays Col next week.

#12 Auburn hosts South Florida in a game that could further help the Big East. WV, LU, and Rutg all have weak projected computer strengths compared to the Pac10, Big12, and SEC. An Auburn win helps out the Big12 as Aub played Kansas St.

Nebraska at Wake Forest has implications outside the Big12 and ACC. USC plays Neb and WF plays Vandy.

The Pac 10 (USC and Cal mostly) should be rooting for ND to win at Penn State as ND plays three teams from the Pac10. ND also plays three ACC teams.

In my sleeper game of the week: Big12 fans are rooting for #75 Kansas State as it hosts #92 San Jose State. Indirectly the SEC is benefited by a KSU win while the Pac 10 benefit from playing SJS twice.

Sep 6: Someone asked for the SOS for the last five years...so I put together a composite list. Year in, year out, you see the top teams from the power conferences play the toughest schedule. I also threw in the top 25 for win %.

 
                           2002-2006 Top 25 SOS
Rank	Team		W	L	win %	  SOS
1	Southern Cal	56	6	90.3%	0.5768
2	Michigan	46	14	76.7%	0.5735
3	Florida		42	17	71.2%	0.5642
4	Oklahoma	54	10	84.4%	0.5616
5	Notre Dame	40	19	67.8%	0.5613
6	Ohio State	53	8	86.9%	0.5612
7	Texas		51	9	85.0%	0.5596
8	Florida St	40	21	65.6%	0.5592
9	Stanford	16	40	28.6%	0.5557
10	Georgia		47	13	78.3%	0.5553
11	Arizona		14	40	25.9%	0.5541
12	Arkansas	35	24	59.3%	0.5527
13	Colorado	30	32	48.4%	0.5494
14	Alabama		35	25	58.3%	0.5482
15	North Carolina	17	39	30.4%	0.5477
16	Texas A&M	29	27	51.8%	0.5476
17	South Carolina	29	29	50.0%	0.5472
18	LSU		48	11	81.4%	0.5437
19	Auburn		43	14	75.4%	0.5427
20	Tennessee	41	19	68.3%	0.5426
21	Penn State	34	24	58.6%	0.5422
22	Miami FL	44	14	75.9%	0.5399
23	UCLA		36	24	60.0%	0.5378
24	Oregon St	32	24	57.1%	0.5377
25	Iowa		41	17	70.7%	0.5369

                 2002-2006 Top 25 Win %                                  
Rank	Team		 W	L	win %	  SOS
1	Southern Cal	56	6	90.3%	0.5768
2	Boise St	53	6	89.8%	0.4514
3	Ohio State	53	8	86.9%	0.5612
4	Texas		51	9	85.0%	0.5596
5	Oklahoma	54	10	84.4%	0.5616
6	LSU		48	11	81.4%	0.5437
7	Georgia		47	13	78.3%	0.5553
8	TCU		45	13	77.6%	0.4542
9	Michigan	46	14	76.7%	0.5735
10	Louisville	46	14	76.7%	0.4742
11	Miami FL	44	14	75.9%	0.5399
12	Auburn		43	14	75.4%	0.5427
13	Virginia Tech	45	15	75.0%	0.5255
14	West Virginia	42	14	75.0%	0.5064
15	Florida		42	17	71.2%	0.5642
16	Iowa		41	17	70.7%	0.5369
17	Wisconsin	43	18	70.5%	0.5155
18	Boston College	40	18	69.0%	0.5055
19	Utah		39	18	68.4%	0.4719
20	Tennessee	41	19	68.3%	0.5426
21	Notre Dame	40	19	67.8%	0.5613
22	California	40	19	67.8%	0.5214
23	Florida St	40	21	65.6%	0.5592
24	Northern Ill	36	19	65.5%	0.4298
25	Toledo		36	21	63.2%	0.4398

Sep 5: Week 1 BCS standings and SOS are updated. I've got the Message Board back up and running. Check it out and post your comments about the site or BCS.

Aug 26: 2007 schedule has been added. The computer component is just the average of the two polls until more are released. I've taken a look at the projected computer strengths of the top ten teams using Colley's matrix. I used the projected BCS ranking to projet the winners of all games. I then looked at different scenarios creating different undefeated teams. UF and USC look to have the strongest schedules. In fact even with one loss they will be stronger than several major undefeated teams. Texas will be a stronger undeafeted team than OU. Michigan will be the strongest team out of the Big 10. OSU and Wisc are rather weak undefeated teams. Louisville Will be stonger in the computers than WVU.

FLORIDA    	11	0	1.032
USC    		12	0	1.015
TEXAS    	12	0	0.999
LSU    		12	0	0.989
CALIFORNIA    	12	0	0.984
MICHIGAN    	11	0	0.970
VA TECH    	11	0	0.966
FLORIDA    	10	1	0.956
USC    		11	1	0.947
OKLAHOMA    	12	0	0.946
LOUISVILLE    	11	0	0.943
WISCONSIN    	11	0	0.932
TEXAS    	11	1	0.930
LSU    		11	1	0.921
OHIO ST    	11	0	0.919
WVU    		12	0	0.918
CALIFORNIA    	11	1	0.917
MICHIGAN    	10	1	0.898
VA TECH    	10	1	0.887

DEc 3: LA Times is reporting that it will be UF versus OSU. Other unconfirmed reports have LSU accepting the Sugar bowl invitation.

Dec 3: Coaches, Sagarin, Colley are updated. UF picked up a lot of votes in the Coaches poll and if that trend continues in the Harris they will be #2. If UF and Mich evenly split the #2 and #3 votes in the Harris poll, UF will lead UM by .0055. UM needs 24 more #2 votes or a 48 point lead in Harris on UF to over come the Coaches polls margin assuming both UM's and UF's computer component is .94. Should I have made a mistake in my computer estmates and say UF's computer component is .93 not .94, then UM will only need a 10 vote margin or a 20 point lead. Last week UM led UF by 86 points in Harris.

                                 Comp      Coach's           Harris           BSC    
     Team                 W  L    Ave  Rank  Pts    BCS  Rank  Pts    BCS   Points 
  1  Ohio State          12  0   1.00    1  1550  0.984    1  2850  1.000   0.9947
  2  Florida             11  1   0.94    2  1470  0.933    2  2679  0.940   0.9378
  3  Michigan            11  1   0.94    3  1444  0.917    2  2679  0.940   0.9323

Nov 27: Full update completed. If USC wins they will be in. Does UF have a shot if USC loses? Below is how I see the computers if USC loses - a tie between UF and Mich. Therefore UF will need to pass Michigan in the human polls for a chance at the MNC. Based on the voting so far this year, I think only a blowout win in the SECCG would do the trick for UF...Maybe even that won't be enough to sway the voters.

	Team		ST	RB	WC	KM	JS	PW	BCS Ave	
1	Ohio State	1	1	2	1	1	1	1.00
2	Michigan	3	2	3	3	2	2	2.50
3	Florida		2	3	1	2	3	3	2.50

NOV5: All Data is Updated.

Oct 9: As I suspected the Arkansas upset of Auburn could have a hugh impact on the BCS. USC is #1 in 3 computers while UF is 3rd in most. In Colley's ranking USC is 1st with a rating of .9657, OSU is 2nd at .9502, and UF is 3rd at .9488. Switching just the outcome of Ark-AU and OSU would be #1 in Colley at .951, UF #2 at .9489, and USC 3rd at .9469. It is not unreasonable to think that the other computers (except Billingsley) would be affect in the same way. It will be interesting to see how close it will be at the end of the season.

It looks like a battle between UF and USC is shaping up. It was not a good week for UF as 4 of their opponents lost games they were projected to win. Auburn lost to Arkansas (which helps USC quite a bit), SMiss lost to Tulsa, Vandy lost to Miss, and FSU lost to NCST. Had these games gone the other way, UF would probably be ahead of USC in a couple computers and a lot closer to USC in the BCS standings.

Nov 7 2005: I removed my web counter as it was responsible for those annoying pop-up ads. Don't use WebStats4U.

Nov 3: People have been asking about the future opponent's for VT and UT. I do think VT could still get close to UT in the BCS standings. Below is the current and project SOS for each team's remaining opponents. VT's remaining opponents are 10 games above .500 while UT's are 3 games above .500. Obviously, VT needs UT's schedule to be as weak as possible. Probably, the most important thing for VT is that UT's opponent in the Big 12 Championship Game has as many losses as possible, therefore any loss by Colorado is a good thing for VT. Next, any loss by Ohio State (at Ill this week) helps VT. UT's other non-conference opponents are UL-Laf and Rice. This week, #104 UL-Laf is projected to win over #106 North Texas and Rice is projected to lose to SMU. Other (not so obvious) key games that could have an impact on UT's SOS is Mid Ten ST vs Ark St. Ark St. has played 3 of UT's opponents. Arizona has played 2 of UT's opponents and plays UCLA. New Mex St. plays 2 of UT's opponents and is projected to lose to Boise state.

Nov 1: All Data is updated. Yesterday I was traveling from the west coast to S. Florida and so I couldn't update. Sorry for the delay. I still don't have phone or internet service after Hurricane Wilma.

I have added a new way to look at schedule strength. This uses the BCS computers to judge a team's SOS. I like looking at the top 6 toughest teams played. But I also display the average computer ranking of teams played to date and all teams on the schedule.

Oct 17: Billingsley and Wolfe just came out. Massey and Anderson are still estimated. In Massey's Ranking I have just moved FSU and PSU out of the top ten and maintained the order from last week for all teams that won. It is very possible that USC overtakes UGA in Massey's ranking. This would drop UGA back another .33 behind VT. Texas picked up another #2 computer ranking in Wolfe's ranking. They may have a better computer ranking than VT when all polls are released.

Oct 16: Coaches, Harris, Sagarin, Colley updated. All others estimated. Texas has increased its lead over VT the Human polls and moved up to #2 in Sagarin, 4th in Colley, and I think they will be #2 or maybe #3 in Billingsley. They should be comfortably in the #2 spot in the first official BCS poll on Monday. Sorry for the earlier publication of Texas 6th in Colley. VT is closer to UGA than Texas. Of course, when Wolfe's poll comes out things could change a bit.

Texas might even increase their lead after next weeks' games by playing TexTech, but then they play 4 straight teams ranked higher than 46, while VT plays #33, #12, #6 and #35. So VT will pick up points in the computers but it probably won't be enough unless the voters shrink the gap between VT and Texas in the human polls.

Oct 10: ALL Polls updated. VT dropped two spots in the Seattle Times/ Anderson ranking and dropped to #3 in the BCS.

Texas's opponents did not have a good week. All 3 out of conference opponents lost in very winnable games. UL-Laf to FAU, OSU lost to PSU, and Rice lost to E. Car. These games have a lot impact on the computers. Look at how UT projected SOS droppped 24 spots down to 48th. VT's O.O.C opponents perfromed as expected as WV beat Rut and Ohio lost to BG. VT's projected SOS moved up 10 spots from 17th to 10th.

Oct 9:Very preliminary Standings have been estimated. Coaches, Harris, Colley and Sagarin are updated, all others have been estimated. PSU is only tenth in the coaches poll if they are tenth in the Harris poll too, they may drop below Miami in my estimated rankings. Texas picked up 5 more coaches votes with the win over OU.

Oct 4: VT currently enjoys a healthly lead over UT but that is sure to shrink if UT keep winning. The chart belows illustrates the advantage in the computers that VT will have to hold over UT to stay in the #2 spot. Given UT's current lead in the coaches poll of 58 votes and 109 votes in the Harris poll, VT needs a 0.08 point advantage in the computer to stay ahead of UT overall. This means that if VT had an average computer ranking of 2 for 0.96 points, UT could be ranked no better than 4th on average or 0.88 points. If UT were to have an average computer ranking of 3 for .92 points, VT would need to pick up about 14 and 26 votes in the Coaches and Harris poll respectfully to stay in the #2 spot.

Put another way, Let's say the Human polls have USC#1, UT #2, and VT#3 at the end of the year. If the computers have VT #2 and UT #3 then UT would in second place overall; unless VT can steal away about 14 and 26 votes from UT in the two polls. I think we may have campaigning for votes like a presidential election soon. My best guess at this point is I think VT will hold about a 0.03 point computer lead over UT (.98 to .95) at the end of the season. Meaning that about 1/3 of the voters would need to rank VT above UT in the human polls.

For those interested here's how the computer rankings translate into BCS points. 4 of 6 computer rankings count in the average, the high and low are dropped.
1 1 1 1 = 1.00
1 1 1 2 = 0.99
1 1 2 2 = 0.98
1 2 2 2 = 0.97
2 2 2 2 = 0.96
2 2 2 3 = 0.95
2 2 3 3 = 0.94
ect.

Oct 4: I've seen where ESPN projected FSU#3 and UT #4. I think that was before the Seattle Times released their poll. UT is 8th in the ST ranking and that improved UT's average computer ranking from 9.0 to 8.67. That changed UT's BCS total from .8652 to .8686.

Oct 3: Texas dropped from 6th to 10th in Massey this week and Anderson(ST) release his ranking with Texas at 8th. This has dropped Texas to a distant 3rd barely above FSU. The good news is that Texas has a lot of room to move up in the polls. This should happen as other teams lose a game. Also, Texas could get a little pop in the polls when Wolfe releases his poll in a few weeks. I still think Texas will be in a good position by the end of the season IF they maintain their current lead in the human polls.

Oct 2: Coach's poll, Harris, Sagarin, and Colley are updated. Billingsley and Massey are estimated. Sorry, I posted UT dropped below VT. I had everyone in Massey ranked two spots lower than their real ranking which affected UT's ave but not VT's ave ranking. Still the margin between UT and VT is very close. Texas should benefit when the final two computer polls are released but you never know. Also, Texas has room to move up in the computer just if other teams lose. So I expect UT to hold a close margin over VT...as long as they maitain their current advantage in the human polls.

Oct 2: The BCS is taking shape after the losses of LSU and UF. It looks like a battle between Texas and VT and maybe FSU is shaping up. So what games this past week affected Texas and VT? Well Duke could have helped the ACC by upsetting Navy but it din't happen. # 38 UNC beat #39 Utah in a key inter-conference game. For Texas' opponents, UL-Laf. and Rice loss in games they were projected to lose, but easily could have won. #51 OU beat #44 KSU which helps Texas in the comptuers.

Oct 2: Coach's poll and Colley are updated. I'ver estimated all others: Sagarin,Massey,Billingsley,Harris.

Sep 27: Three Computer polls have updated with the LSU loss. So I have estimated the polls to see what would the BSC look like if the LSU-UT game was played on Saturday. I estimate the polls by moving LSU down to about 13 in the polls. The UT win really helps Florida in the computers and that helped them open up a slight lead for #3 over VT and FSU. IF UF continues to win they should have a strong computer ranking. VT's computer ranking is low right now but I expect them to get stronger each week as more data gets entered into the computers. FSU has a very strong computer component right now. They really don't have much more room to move up.

Sep 25 Harris, Sagarin, Colley, Massey are updated and I have estimated Billingsley until Monday.

Sep 25: S. Florida over Louisville was the big upset of the week. It really didn't have much of an effect on the top 5 teams in the BCS. Louisville's loss only affected Florida as UL played Kentucky. Among the top five team's direct opponents, there were no upsets. See how this projection works most of the time. Last week Texas's projected sos was 26, this week it is 22 (pending release of computer polls). Florida stays at #1 while LSU moved up from from 7 to 5.

Sep 25: Preliminary data has been updated. Coach's poll, Colley are in - others have been estimated. I'm posting the data now but I expect changes when Massey and Sagarin come out.

Sep 19: I am able to accurately reproduce Colley Matrix. So what will it look like at the end of the season? Well I projected the highest rated team to win all games and Here is what Colley's Matrix would look like. Yes those are a lot of assumptions but it works about 75% of the time. Also it is a good indication of what the computers might look like. Notice USC is the lowest of the major undefeated teams. Look how high a one loss Florida is. It does give a good early indication of the computer strength.

Sep19. Billingsley Ranking has been updated.

Sep 18. Take a look at the projected SOS. Florida and LSU will have very strong schedules. If the winner of the UF-LSU game on Oct 15 can go undefeated, they could give Texas a run at the number 2 slot in the BCS. Texas and USC will have ok schedule strengths. This of course can change as the season goes on. Based on their dominate position in the polls, USC won't have to worry about anyone else.

Sep 18: Ok. I finally got around to updating this year's data. Until the Harris Poll is released, I am doubling the points from the Coach's poll. I'm doing this to keep the computers at 33% of the total points. Look for more content this week on how the BCS will shape up this year.

Sep 7: I have added the results of each team's opponents for the current week so you can track how your opponents opponent's did. On Wednesday, I'll uodate this section so you can so who your opponents play for the upcoming weekend.

Oct 12 2004: I've been getting some questions about the computer rankings so here how it goes: If you have 4 #1 rankings after dropping the high and low, you would get 1.0 pts. If you had 3 #1s and 1 #2 you would get 0.99 pts. 2 #1, 2 #2 = .98 pts. 3 #1, 1 # 3 = .98 pst. four #2 = .96 pts. So each ranking position is worth 0.01 in the computer component and 1/3 of that, .003333, when averaged into the total BCS points. Clearer now? ;)

Mathematically, BCS Comp. Points = (26 - Ave Computer Ranking)/25. To have one unified BCS rating for all teams I extend the above system into negative numbers.

Some would say it makes sense to scale each rating system to 1 and take the relative position of each team, similar to the polls. I think they thought that not be mathematically correct as each computer system may have a different distribution. For instance, Colley would go from 1 to almost 0 while Billingsley would go from 1 to .54. Sagarin 1 to .4. You also have to deal with the systems with negative ratings, Massey and Wolfe. So they just use the ranking.

Jan 6: All data is updated. Colley has changed his rankings since Monday morning when I first updated. OSU is 3rd and OU is 4th.

Below I've broken down the Bowl Schedule. The ACC had the best W-L % but the SEC played a tougher schedule. The Big Ten11 played the toughest schedule. I've sorted the teams by WR-LR which is the sum of WinRank-LossRank. WinRank is the sum of the inverse rank of beaten teams. For instance, the M.West's one win came against #27 S.Miss and 118-27=91. Loss Rank is the sum of the rank of teams to which a conference lost. So you earn points by beating good teams and lose points by losing to weak teams. The Big 12 had a very disappointing bowl season being upset in two games and losing a toss-up game #21 OkSt vs. #19 OleMiss. Their only wins were over #31 MSU and #61 Navy. The BCS formula had rated the BIG12 as the best conference. Obviously, something is wrong. Texas gets ranked highly every year by only beating other Big12 teams. On the other hand the Pac-10 performed better than the BCS formula predicted. They actually won 3 games they were supposed to lose and were upset in one. The biggest game being #14 WSU's dominate performance over #5 Texas. In hindsight, USC and LSU should have played in the Sugar. The BCS needs to look at why this happened and make a change.

Conference   AveOppRank  Wins Loses WinRank  LossRank  WR-LR  Proj.Wins  Proj.Loss

SEC             20.6       5    2     482        41     441       5          2

ACC             32.7       5    1     398         9     389       4          2

Pac-10          27.7       4    2     384        82     302       2          4

Big Ten         18.0       3    5     300        93     207       3          5

WAC             47.3       3    1     214        52     162       1          3

MAC             46.0       2    0     142         0     142       2          0

Big East        30.8       2    3     184       104      80       2          3

Big 12          25.6       2    6     144       115      29       4          4

MWEST           39.0       1    2      91        91       0       3          0

Independents    37.0       0    1       0        37     -37       0          1

CUSA            32.8       1    4      68       115     -47       1          4

Sun Belt        58.0       0    1       0        58     -58       1          0

Dec 8: My computer poll is updated. I've recieved a few questions about the ND-Syr, and Haw-BSU games. We know that USC would be #2 if ND won. The SOS gain alone would push USC ahead of LSU and they would have been 2nd in Colley's rankings. But the Hawaii-BSU game was also a difference maker. Had Hawaii won, USC's sos would have been 1.28 and they would have edged out LSU 5.95 to 5.99. In fact USC's SOS drops to 1.28 if BYU, Hawaii, or ND won one more game. Of course, the same can be said for LSU but this is 2 years out of six that the final margin was less than the effect of one opponents game. Another interesting point is the margin in Billingsley was very very close. I was projecting LSU to gain 4 points on USC and finish 0.7 point ahead of USC. The final margin was only 0.12!

Dec 7: All Data is updated.

                                Comp      Media

     Team                W  L    Ave   Coach  AP   Ave    QW    SOS   BCS

  1  Oklahoma            12 1    1.17    3    3   3.00   0.5   0.44   5.11

  2  LSU                 12 1    1.83    2    2   2.00     0   1.16   5.99

  3  Southern Cal        11 1    2.67    1    1   1.00     0   1.48   6.15

Dec 7: This may be my last update. Unfortunately I will not be able to do much updating tomorrow. Eventhough OU lost not much has changed in the battle between LSU and USC. The sos has changed slightly and I think UGA will be 11th behind KSU. IF OU drops to 3rd in the polls I think LSU will play OU. IF OU drops to #2 then I think USC will play OU. I have assumed LSU gets 6 computer #2s. I would not be surprised if LSU is #1 in Massey and/or #2 in the NYTimes but my projections have OU still #1 in all computer polls. I'm sorry I won't be able to update much tomorrow. The computer polls page has my predictions for each computer, so you will have to update the computers as they are released. Colley you can take to the bank and I'm pretty sure on Billingsley but it will be close.

                                Comp      Media

     Team                W  L    Ave   Coach  AP   Ave    QW    SOS   BCS

  1  Oklahoma            12 1    1.00    3    3    3.0   0.5   0.44   4.94

  2  LSU                 12 1    2.00    2    2    2.0     0   1.20   6.20

  3  Southern Cal        11 1    2.83    1    1    1.0     0   1.48   6.31

Dec 6: Breaking down the computers. I've put my odds that USC is ranked #2 in parentheses. USC will need to be ranked #2 in one computer if UGA finishes 11th and 2 if UGA finishes 10th.

NYTimes: USC has its biggest lead over LSU (50%)
Billingsley: I have USC 0.7 points behind LSU in my model. This is a close margin in this poll I could be wrong.(20%)
Wolfe: Wolfe has stated that he believes LSU will be #2 with a win. (10%)
Anderson: LSU Already leads (2%)
Massey: LSU already leads (3%)
Colley: LSU will be #2 with the Syracuse win (1%).
Sagarin: LSU already leads (1%)

Dec 6: I've update the scenarios. I think it will basically come down to the ND Syracuse game. I have read that Wolfe stated that LSU will probably #2 in his rankings with a win. The NYTimes ranking will be close between USC and LSU. LSU should have all others if Syracuse wins.

I also have readjusted the computer rankings for UGA and Miami OH in my projected rankings. If UGA loses it will be very close with Miami OH for the #10 spot. Remember for QW points UGA must be ahead of Miami OH in the subtotal. I only have Miami OH moving up one spot in the human polls due to the projected loss of KSU. Should they move up further in the human polls, then I think they will be 10th and UGA 11th. I'd say it is a 50-50 proposition that UGA will earn .1 QW point for LSU.

Winners               USC       LSU   How LSU jumps USC

M.OH,Syr, BSU        1.44      1.24   LSU needs 6 of 7 computer #2s (85%)

M.OH,Syr, Haw        1.32      1.24   LSU needs 6 computer #2s AND .1 QWs OR all 7 #2s  (70%)

M.OH, ND, BSU        1.32      1.28   USC IS #2

M.OH, ND, Haw        1.16      1.32   USC IS #2

Dec 3: Revisiting LSU's SOS and having to reschedule Troy St and Marshall with ULM and W.Ill. LSU projected SOS is 1.32. If we just remove W.Ill (LSU plays 12 games like USC) LSU's sos drops to 1.04. If we replace W.Ill with Marshall it drops to 0.76. If we also replace ULM with Troy St. it drops to 0.36. If this were the case I think LSU would already be second. Sorry LSU fans, this is probably not what you want to hear right now, but I was getting a few asking about this.

Dec 3: I got the below email stating that Anderson himself believes Miami-Ohio has very little chance to overcome USC in his poll. It may happen in Sagarin but it won't hurt USC unless they fall to 4th in 2 computer polls. As I've stated below, USC should break the tie and move ahead of UM in the NYTimes rankings and pass OSU in Massey. I guess it is possible that USC remains 4th in Massey, but the odds of USC falling to 4th in 2 computers is low. So I think we can with more confidence that if ND and Hawaii win USC will be #2.

 I thought I would forward this e-mail I received from Anderson Sports.

> Scott Slate

> Scott,

> Miami of Ohio benefitted a great deal from Bowling

> Green's win over Toledo, which vaulted Bowling Green

> (a previous Miami of Ohio opponent) into the top-25.

> But the RedHawks have very, very little chance of

> overtaking USC in the final pre-bowl rankings.

> AndersonSports

Dec 2: As I have stated below it is possible that USC could drop to 4th in a couple of computer polls. In my opinion this could only happen in Sagarin and Anderson if Miami-OH wins as Bowling Green is a better opponent than Oregon State. I expect USC to break the tie with Michigan in the NYTimes by playing 7-4 Oregon St. USC is 4th in Massey but barely behind OSU 4.463 to 4.428. I could be wrong but I expect USC to be 3rd in Massey next week. USC leads M.OH by 0.7 points in Sagarin and this will be a very close call. USC leads M.OH .757 to .745 in Anderson. This also will be close but my gut feeling is that USC holds off Miami. B.G. is 22nd in Anderson and may not give enough of a boost. The good news for USC is that the lead over LSU in Wolfe is larger than I thought it would be this week. I would not be surprised if USC finishes in the #2 spot in Wolfe's poll. If ND wins then USC will be #2 in the Colley Matrix.

Dec 1: Many have asked about Colley's Matrix. If you go to his site you can add future games. Adding wins by LSU, USC, ND, Boise St, and Miami-O USC is 2nd at .8846 and LSU is 3rd at .8824. This is what my calculation also comes up with. The only way LSU passes USC in Colley is if ND loses. If ND loses and Hawaii wins LSU is still #2 in Colley.

Dec 1: All data is updated. Note the Projected SOS for LSU has changed. I had forgotten to account for the rule that LSU's previous victory over UGA does not get counted when it plays UGA again. Also, if LSU wins its second victory does not count as an opponent's loss for the game on 9/20. The net effect is that LSU opponents have 2 fewer losses than I had been projecting. I apologize for publishing an incorrect projection.

Winners               USC       LSU   How LSU jumps USC

 BG, Syr, BSU        1.44      1.20   LSU would be #2 with 6 #2 computer rankings and no QW points

M.OH,Syr, BSU        1.44      1.24   Same as above

 BG, Syr, Haw        1.28      1.20   LSU would be #2 with 6 #2 computer rankings and .1 QW points or 7 computer #2s

 BG,  ND, BSU        1.32      1.24   Same as above

M.OH,Syr, Haw        1.32      1.24   Same as above

M.OH, ND, BSU        1.32      1.28   LSU needs all 7 computer #2 rankings

 BG,  ND, Haw        1.16      1.28   USC would have to fall to 4th in 2 computers

M.OH, ND, Haw        1.16      1.32   Same as above

Dec 1: The battle between USC and LSU might be decided by the computer polls. LSU is ahead in Massey, Anderson and Sagarin. It is very likely that LSU will overtake USC in Billingsley by beating Georgia. I think it is also likely that LSU will 2nd in the NYTimes. This ranking correlates well with the opponents winning percentage and weighs recent results more heavily (that is how Florida was ranked so highly). Wolfe's ranking will be a close call but I think LSU has a good shot at that one too. That leaves Colley's Matrix. Luckily, I have that one duplicated. USC will be #2 in Colley with wins by the favorites. LSU will be #2 in Colley if Syracuse upsets ND, even if Hawaii upsets Boise State. So there you have it the Syracuse-ND game could determine the BCS with its effect on sos and Colley's Matrix. Of course there are many such games during the season, this is just the last one.

Nov 30: Only the Syrcuse vs ND and Haw vs BSU games will affect the sos of USC and LSU. If B.G. beats Miami OH then Purdue jumps both USC and LSU. I'm fairly confident the Army-Navy game won't affect the sos of teams ranked near USC and LSU. So there won't be a change in sos ranking as there was with the Tol vs B.G. game last week. Below illustrates a point I think many still miss. A team's sos ranking depends not only on its opponents games but also on how the sos ranking of other teams change each week. The Hawaii vs Boise St game does not change LSU's sos rating but UNLV's sos rating is improved from .5129 to .5179 and this is enough to move them 10 places in rank! The top 10 teams are separated by 0.06 in sos rating. Yet, where LSU and UNLV are ranked, 0.005 in rating separates 10 teams in rank. Just another inconsistency in the BCS.

                      USC       LSU

 ND and BSU win      1.28      1.36   Projected SOS

Syr and BSU win      1.44      1.28   (LSU jumps USC and Oregon)

 ND and Haw win      1.20      1.40   (UNLV jumps LSU)

Syr and Haw win      1.28      1.36

BG, ND, BSU win      1.32      1.40   (Purdue jumps both)

BG, ND, Haw win      1.16      1.44   (USC retakes Purdue)

It was a good week for USC's sos as Hawaii won and bad for LSU as Bama, LaTech and UF lost. USC's projected sos gained 4 positions while LSU's dropped 8 positions. I have looked at the effect of the Hawaii upset of Bama. USC's sos would have been 1.48 instead of 1.28 and LSU's would have been 1.24 instead of 1.36 had Bama won. That's a difference of 0.32 had Bama won! This win also helps in the computer polls and USC is now projected to hold onto the #2 spot in the Colley Matrix. This win could be huge for USC. At the end of the season I will see if this game made the difference between USC and LSU. Had Bama and La Tech won LSU's sos would have been 1.04 and even lower if UF also won. If Syracuse upsets ND next week USC projected sos is 1.44 instead of 1.28.

Nov 25: I have taken a closer look at some key game's effect on the sos for LSU and USC. I have flipped the outcome from a few close games to see what happens. There are so many possibilities which will tend to even things out but I would not be surprised to see LSU pick up valuable sos points after this weeks games. There is another point I'd like to make. At the end of the season my projected sos actually becomes more variable. With a lot of games left, the upsets balance themselves out. As you can see below, with few games remaining one opponent's victory can mean .2 BCS points which can be the difference.