Bowl Championship Series Faqs

How to Calculate the BCS | Computer Polls | Strength of Schedule | Quality Wins | Changes for 2002 | My Rankings | BCS Eligibility/Selection

How is the BCS calculated?

The BCS formula is comprised by 5 components. The average ranking in the AP and ESPN coach's poll, an average ranking of the best six of seven compter polls, the number of losses, a strength of schedule (SOS) factor, and a quality wins (QW) factor.

Computer Polls

Desciptions of the most computer polls can be found at these sites:

Kenneth Massey       Jeff Sagarin         Wes Colley       NY Times
Richard Billinsley     Anderson/Seattle Times       Peter Wolfe

The highest compter ranking is dropped and the remaining six are averaged. For 20002 the BCS committee has asked all the comptuer polls to eliminate the margin of victory from their polls.

Quality Wins

QW points are awarded for victories over teams ranked in the top ten of BCS poll. A victory over the top ranked team is worth 1 point, 0.9 points for the #2 team, etc. down to 0.1 point for a win over the tenth ranked team. QW points are dynamic and change as a team moves up or down the rankings from week to week. The first four factors are added together and the QW component is substratced from this total. Should the correction for QWs change the ranking of teams in the top ten, the QW bonus points are not recalculated.

The Strength of Schedule is calculated as follows:

The Strength of Schedule component used in the BCS rankings is the quartiled ranking of a team's SOS. In other words all 117 teams are ranked based on the formula described below and the ranking is divided by 25. Thus, the team with the best SOS gets 0.04 points, and the teams ranked 25th gets 1 point added to it BCS total.

The SOS is a weighted average of 2/3 the winning percentage of a team's opponents and 1/3 the winning percentage of the opponent's opponents.

Thus SOS = 2/3*(OpW)/(OpW+OpL) + 1/3*(OpOpW)/(OpOpW + OpOpL) where:
OpW is the sum of all opponents wins minus the number of losses by the team in question minus the number of wins over Div1AA teams
OpL is the sum of all opponents losses minus the number of wins by the team in question
OpOpW is the sum of all opponents wins as calculated above
OpOpL is the sum of all opponents losses as calculated above.

A team's win over an opponent does not get added into the sum of its opponents losses and vise versa. Wins over Div1AA teams do not count but losses do. Victories by Div1AA teams over other Div1AA teams are also discarded but the losses count. Games between Div1AA teams and DivII teams are discarded altogether.

Changes for the 2002 season:

The margin of victory component in the computer polls was be eliminated.

Two polls from 2001 were dropped when their creators, David Rothman's and Herman Matthew's, refused to eliminate MOV. The NY Times computer poll was added after being dropped after the 2000 season.

The quality win component will be narrowed from wins over teams in the top 15 of the BCS rankings to teams in the top 10.

In response to college football’s increase to a 12-game regular-season schedule, the requirement for consideration as an at-large team will be a 9-3 record and a top-12 ranking in the BCS standings.

In the unlikely event of a tie in the standings at the conclusion of the regular season, the tie-breaking components, in order, will be: head-to-head results; a win against the highest ranked team in the BCS top 25 poll; and strength of schedule component as contained in the BCS ratings formula.

How my rankings differ from the official BCS poll:

The official rankings use what I call the current SOS which is the current record of opponents played to date. My rankings use what I call the full schedule SOS which is the current record of all teams on the schedule. Typically, for a team that has played 6 games, its current opponents will have only played a total of about 35 games, while its full schedule opponents will have played about 70 games. The total number of opponents games by the end of the season will be about 135 games. Thus by using the Full SOS we get a more accurate view of the Final SOS which is the one that really matters. I also published a projected SOS which assumes a win for the higher ranked team for all unplayed games. Yes this is highly speculative but it is useful early in the season to get a more accurate view of the SOS. Usually I use the Projected SOS in my BCS rankings until mid October when enough games have been played and then I start to use the Full schedule SOS. Some might think that the Projected SOS is complete B.S. because of the assumptions made. However, two factors work in my favor here: 1) In college football a larger number of games are certain to be won by the favorite. We know that the Dukes, Vandys, and UL Monores will only win 2-4 games while the top 10 teams will only lose 2-3 geams. 2) The law of averages work in my favor. With over 130 opponents games and 1400 opponent's opponents games, upsets will tend to balance themselves out. Thus the Projected SOS is actually more accurate than would be expected.

Bowl Selection Criteria

Guaranteed Slots

Automatic entry for the four BCS bowl games are:

  1. The conference champions of the following conferences:     Big Ten, Big XII, SEC, Big East, Pac-10, and ACC
  2. Notre Dame, if they win 9 non-exempt games or finish in the top 10 in the final BCS ratings. (Midway through the 2002 season the NCAA reversed its decision and allowed Notre Dame to count its preseason bowl game as non-exempt. Another clear example of favortism.)
  3. At-large teams that finish in the top 4 in the final BCS ratings.

At-Large Eligibility

  1. Any other Division I-A independent or conference champion which finishes higher than sixth in the final BCS standings.
  2. Any other Division I-A team that has won nine or more games against other Division I-A opponents and the team must finish higher than 12th place in the final BCS standings.
Notes:
  1. The conference champion of the six BCS conferences must have an average ranking of 12 or higher for a 4-year period, or the automatic selection may be revoked.
  2. Only two teams from a conference may participate in BCS bowls regardless of eligibility.
  3. Becoming BCS bowl eligible does not garantee an invitation.

Which bowl game will my team visit?

The 2002 Division I-A National Championship game between the top two ranked teams will be held in the Fiesta Bowl.

Each BCS Bowl game has regional conference tie-ins. The Nokia Sugar Bowl hosts the SEC champion. The ACC and/or Big East champions play in the FedEx Orange Bowl. The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl hosts the Big XII champion. The Big 10 and Pac-10 conference champions meet in the AT&T Rose Bowl.

The national championship game will rotate each year between the BCS Bowls in this order Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, Rose. The bowl game that hosts the national championship loses its conference tie-in with the exception that the conference champion for the bowl is number one or number two in the BCS final rankings. For instance, in 1999, the Sugar Bowl hosted the national championship game, so the SEC champion is not guaranteed the Sugar Bowl unless it finishes #1 or #2 in the final BCS rankings. Florida State and Virginia Tech played in the Sugar Bowl in 1999 so the Orange Bowl, which lost both of its conference tie-ins to the national championship game, gets first choice of the remaining BCS bowls for at-large teams. Any of the BCS bowls may choose the SEC champ. The Orange Bowl chose Michigan as an at large selection. Nebraska went to the Fiesta Bowl as Big XII champs. The Fiesta Bowl could choose the SEC champion, or the second at-large team. The Rose Bowl does not get a selection as both conference tie-ins were filled by Wisconsin and Stanford. The Fiesta Bowl chose Tennessee as an at large selection, which left the SEC champion, Alabama, for the Orange Bowl.