B(c)S Comentary

The Road to the Sugar Bowl

The new BSC rules have put a lot weight on the polls. What is interesting is that a team may be ranked #3 in both polls but could be only a fraction behind in total number of votes. Then the computers will come into play.

Missouri wins and they are in. Oct 15th, they were 15th in the BCS.
Key Games: Oklahoma Odds: 60%

WVU climbed back to the top after falling as far as 9th. All they have to do is beat Pitt.
Key Games: Pitt Odds:85%

OSU still has a shot. They are going to need Missouri to lose to OU or WVU to lose to Pitt. Assuming Mizzou is a 60% favorite and WVU is an 85% fav - OSU has a 49% chance either of those things will happen.
Key Games: Odds: 49%

LSU will need to beat UT and have Missouri and WVU lose. There is a 6% chance both UMizz and WVU lose. I give LSU a 50-50 chance of beating UT (every game has been close for LSU lately).
Key Games: UT Odds: 3%

VT needs Missouri, WVU, and LSU to lose. In that scenario I think they would jump UGA due to being conference champs and UGA not winning the SEC. I give VT a 50% to beat BC so the remaining 3% goes to VT and UGA evenly.
Key Games: BC Odds:1.5%

UGA is in fourth right now so they may get in if Missouri and WVU lose but I think the pollsters might keep them out because they didn't win their conference.
Key Games: LSU Odds: 1.5%

I think is done even though they have only one loss.
Key Games: Odds:0%

Others 0%

Last Updated: Nov 25

	Missouri wins and they are in. Oct 15th, they were 15th in the BCS. Key Games: Oklahoma Odds: 60%
	WVU climbed back to the top after falling as far as 9th. All they have to do is beat Pitt. Key Games: Pitt Odds:85%
	OSU still has a shot. They are going to need Missouri to lose to OU or WVU to lose to Pitt. Assuming Mizzou is a 60% favorite and WVU is an 85% fav - OSU has a 49% chance either of those things will happen. Key Games: Odds: 49%
	LSU will need to beat UT and have Missouri and WVU lose. There is a 6% chance both UMizz and WVU lose. I give LSU a 50-50 chance of beating UT (every game has been close for LSU lately). Key Games: UT Odds: 3%
	VT needs Missouri, WVU, and LSU to lose. In that scenario I think they would jump UGA due to being conference champs and UGA not winning the SEC. I give VT a 50% to beat BC so the remaining 3% goes to VT and UGA evenly. Key Games: BC Odds:1.5%
	UGA is in fourth right now so they may get in if Missouri and WVU lose but I think the pollsters might keep them out because they didn't win their conference. Key Games: LSU Odds: 1.5%
	I think is done even though they have only one loss. Key Games: Odds:0%